Grand Prix tug-of-war sparks premature battle for 2022 election

It’s never a good sign when a president, in his first year in office, feels the need to publicly lay out his plans for re-election. Former President Michel Temer first discussed potentially standing for another term in March 2018, seven months before the election. Before him, Dilma Rousseff only admitted her push for re-election in May of 2014. Jair Bolsonaro, however, has already set his stall out for the 2022 election, six months into his term.

As we have seen, Jair Bolsonaro is no typical president. In fact, he’s the least popular president in Brazilian history at the six-month mark of his term. A recent Datafolha poll shows that while 33 percent of the population class his presidency as “good or great,” another 33 percent regard it as “bad or terrible,” giving him the highest disapproval ratings at this stage out of any of his predecessors.

It is in this context that during a visit to his hometown of Eldorado in June, Mr. Bolsonaro declared his intention of running for a second term in 2022, unless a “good political reform” is approved until then. “If the people want it, we’ll be here to continue for another four years,” he said. “In the future everyone will vote [for me], I am sure of that.”

Besides insecurity over his polling numbers, however, Jair Bolsonaro’s rush to cement his position for 2022 has another motive: clipping the wings of João Doria, the governor of...