Datafolha, Brazil’s most respected polling institute, released the first presidential poll following Lula’s conviction confirmation for corruption and money laundering. The former president still leads all scenarios, having up to 37 percent of voting intentions. Lula, however, will likely not be on the ballot due to his second conviction. And without him, the 2018 presidential election is wide open.
Extreme right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro leads all scenarios without Lula – but his voting intentions remain fairly stable, slightly increasing from an average of 17 to 19 percent. If anything, this latest poll reveals that Bolsonaro is failing to maintain the pace of his upward trajectory.