The center-right’s rocky path to the presidency in Brazil

</p> <p>In his first speech as party chair, Alckmin has promised to beat Lula. But to keep his word, he will first need to make it to the runoff stage. With the elections less than a year away, Alckmin needs to make his mark on a race that will feature extremism right-winger <a href="https://brazilian.report/2017/10/31/2018-election-brazil-extreme-right/">Jair Bolsonaro</a>, who is already <a href="https://brazilian.report/2017/11/30/chaos-uncertainty-brazils-2018-election/">polling</a> better than Alckmin.</p> <p>Thanks to an early grassroots campaigning effort, Bolsonaro already has around 10 percent of the votes in spontaneous polls (when voters are not presented with possible candidates). In comparison, Lula – who was the country’s most popular president, ever – has 17 percent. Alckmin has 1 percent. To make matters worse for the PSDB to-be candidate, Bolsonaro’s supporters are far more loyal than the average voter.</p> <p>To make it to the runoff stage, Alckmin will also have to overcome competition from Marina Silva. She is an environmentalist, and came in third during the last two elections. While Silva is anything but an energizing political force, she is a moderate who pleases centrists. And while that might not be good enough to take the election, it could be enough to kill Geraldo Alckmin’s presidential hopes.</p> <p>In Alckmin’s ideal reality, he would secure large amounts of TV airtime – thanks to alliances with traditional parties – and steal voters from the gravitational fields of Bolsonaro and Silva. But how could he pander to such dissimilar voter bases? Solving that conundrum would not be an easy task, even for a charismatic candidate – and we can’t say that about São Paulo’s governor.</p> <p>Moreover, Alckmin embodies the kind of non-committal behavior that has hampered his party over the last few years. PSDB wants to present itself as a party of morals. Yet at the same time, it has protected its former chair, Senator Aécio Neves, who was recorded asking for bribes from a businessman. Alckmin himself is currently targeted by a federal anti-corruption investigation.</p> <p>PSDB is also hoping to galvanize those who reject Brazil’s political establishment. But just moments before condemning the political class, Alckmin thanked ten major, established parties in his inauguration ceremony for their presence.</p> <p>Finally, there is the party’s problematic relationship with Michel Temer’s administration. Rejected by 73 percent of Brazilians, Temer commands the country’s biggest party (he is also the recipient of the most free TV airtime). While PSDB congressmen are hoping to distance themselves from Temer, Alckmin supports the embattled president’s reform agenda. The problem with this strategy? If the economy improves, PSDB might not be able to capitalize on the change. If it doesn’t, Alckmin’s bid risks being tarnished by associating with Temer’s administration.</p> <p>Former Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, one of the founders of PSDB, said that it was better to beat Lula at the polls than to put him in jail. It was a nice speech, but neither Alckmin nor Cardoso want to see Lula on the ballot in 2018. Without Lula, the two spots for the runoff stage would be up for grabs – which, at this point, might be Ackmin’s <a href="http://www.infomoney.com.br/mercados/politica/noticia/7134355/fatores-que-podem-inviabilizar-candidatura-geraldo-alckmin-presidencia">only</a> chance.