Explaining Brazil #99: Is recession inescapable?

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The coronavirus outbreak has slowed down the Chinese economy and is sending shockwaves through markets around the world, threatening a global recession. In Brazil, analysts are growing more pessimistic—slashing GDP growth forecasts for 2020 from 2.3 percent to just 1.99 percent over the past month.

And while there is no evidence that economic conditions have already hit rock bottom, the Brazilian government seems to resist the use of stimulus packages—unlike other countries.

Which begs the question: is Brazil equipped to face the upcoming turmoil?

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On this episode:

Monica de Bolle is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington D.C. Named as “Honored Economist” in 2014 by the Order of Brazilian Economists for her contributions to the Brazilian policy debate, Ms. de Bolle focuses on macroeconomics, foreign exchange policy, monetary and fiscal policy, trade and inequality, financial regulation, and capital markets.

Background reading:

Natália Scalzaretto discusses how the 2020 oil crisis is set to disrupt Brazil.
Remember what happened on March 9, 2020—the 21st century’s “Black Monday”—when Brazil’s stock market crashed 12 percent, triggering a circuit breaker.
In our March 11, 2020 Daily Briefing, we discussed how Brazil is planning to tackle the novel coronavirus outbreak and avoid a recession.
The Brazilian Central Bank said it would stop reducing Brazil’s already low benchmark interest rates, but outside pressure could cause them to go back on their promise.
Brazilian researchers have mapped the coronavirus genome to contain the spread.

Explaining Brazil is made by:

Gustavo Ribeiro, editor in chief of The Brazilian Report. He has extensive experience covering Brazilian politics. His work has been featured across Brazilian and French media outlets, including Veja, Época, Folha de S.Paulo, Médiapart, and Radio France Internationale.
Euan Marshall, editing. Euan is a journalist and translator who has lived in São Paulo, Brazil since 2011. Specializing in Brazilian soccer, politics and the connection between the two, his work has been published in The Telegraph, Al Jazeera, The Independent, among others.

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