The future of nuclear power in Brazil’s diversified energy infrastructure

At the recent United Nations Convention on Climate Change (COP28), over 20 countries, including the U.S., vowed to triple nuclear energy production as a key step to reaching net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. 

Brazil was not among them. However, the country’s new Nova Indústria Brazil (NIB) industrial policy does promise to expand nuclear energy as part of a USD 60 billion plan to combine economic development and environmental responsibility in its national development agenda. 

Additionally, Brazil and France signed an agreement on March 28 that foresees collaboration to foster nuclear power generation and tap into Brazil’s uranium reserves. 

Given Brazil’s shaky environmental record during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022), the new policy seeks to reestablish Brazil’s global leadership in green policies of the 21st century during President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third non-consecutive term. And yet, the nation’s nuclear energy goals may be focused more on military objectives than adding much to their ambitious sustainability agenda.

Notably, the new plan spotlights expanding Brazil’s well-developed alternative energy infrastructure as part of a focus on decarbonization and energy transition. In addition to its heavy dependence on hydroelectricity, Brazil is the world’s second-largest ethanol producer. Its sugar-based ethanol is notably more energy-efficient than the U.S.’s corn-based ethanol counterpart. 

Beyond ethanol, investments in solar and wind energy in Brazil have rapidly grown over the last decade. These power sources account for 13 percent of the country’s total electrical infrastructure, per the country’s Energy Research Company (EPE).

By 2029, experts expect wind production to make up 16 percent of the national grid alone. Since 2019, solar production has doubled, and it is expected to double again by 2029 to account for 2 percent of the national electric generation grid. 

The NIB promises to increase the share of biofuels in the transport energy matrix by 50 percent and expand renewable energy equipment to support the growing sector. 

Despite these significant investments in non-carbon energy, nuclear energy’s role in Brazil’s renewable agenda is minimal. Brazil has the lowest carbon-emitting power sector among the top economies...