How big is Lula’s coalition? He’s about to find out

As the end of the year’s first quarter approaches, Brazil’s Congress may finally begin voting on a wide range of previously neglected bills, from a new fiscal framework to tax reform and an overhaul of lax gun control laws. The House has finally managed to decide on the composition and heads of its standing committees and will now begin deliberations and votes. This will be a chance for the Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva government to finally gauge the size of his ruling coalition.

Elected on the promise of creating a large united front against the far-right threat posed by many of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters, Lula’s cabinet appears to be an attempt to unify a wide range of representation from across the political spectrum. In practice, this is not the case.

First, he kept the cabinet’s crown jewels for his own Workers’ Party. One of the parties with three ministries, Uniao Brasil, has insisted on its independence in Congress.  Even centrist parties such as the Brazilian Democratic Movement party and Social Democratic Party, each with three ministries, are not guaranteed to give enough support for the government’s coalition to pass legislation.

Typically, the government tests legislative support for its agenda with less important bills — a method of determining the size of its coalition, the strength of the opposition, and how much it...