The inevitability of Arthur Lira as Brazil’s House speaker

For those who follow Brazilian politics, a landslide re-election of Arthur Lira as House Speaker later this Wednesday will come as no surprise. Over the past two years, Mr. Lira has strengthened his grip over legislative and budgetary processes, becoming the most powerful speaker since re-democratization in 1985. 

Mr. Lira was a key actor in coordinating the so-called “secret budget” with former President Jair Bolsonaro and his cabinet members, a scheme that secured a form of legislative coalition for the government.

The inevitability of Mr. Lira’s re-election is a product of three factors. 

First, the expansion of House speaker powers, caused partly by Mr. Lira himself. Second, the strength of the so-called “Big Center,” a group of political rent-seeking parties that lack clear ideology and of which Mr. Lira is a representative. Third, his own political abilities, which place him in a position of influence among his peers.

The consequences of Mr. Lira’s re-election are still unclear due to one main feature: he lacks a reputation for sticking to his own promises.

Unpacking Mr. Lira’s wide advantage

Brazil’s Congress got stronger over the last two decades. 

Prior to the last two years of the Jair Bolsonaro administration, this process generally occurred institutionally, that is, it was not ignited...