Lessons from the U.S. midterms for Jair Bolsonaro

Until recently, Donald Trump’s post-2020 election strategy seemed highly attractive to Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Despite losing his re-election bid, Mr. Trump managed to retain the support of a sizeable part of the Republican electorate and in the recent primaries, pro-Trump candidates successfully ousted more moderate politicians such as Liz Cheney, a congresswoman from Wyoming. 

The continued support for Mr. Trump and his role as Joe Biden’s most likely challenger in 2024 also made it riskier for the U.S. Justice system to prosecute the former television star: it is one thing to put a former president behind bars, quite another to imprison the leader of the opposition. 

Finally, the sizable number of Trump voters who believe the 2020 elections were stolen — despite no evidence suggesting fraud — has deepened polarization and made governing the country more difficult for President Biden. All in all, following Mr. Trump’s post-defeat path seemed to have few downsides for Mr. Bolsonaro.

Yet, the disappointing results for Trumpian candidates in the recent U.S. midterms suggest that voters may be growing tired of the radical turn the party has taken since Trump’s takeover. In numerous close races that Republicans lost, it is reasonable to assume that a more moderate — and more qualified — Republican candidate...