Bolsonaro v. Lula reveals gulf between Brazilian and foreign executives

Over the past few weeks, business meetings between Brazilian and international executives and investors have often involved moments of awkward silence and eyes rolling when the conversation turned to Brazil’s upcoming elections. 

While Brazil’s economic elites still overwhelmingly support President Jair Bolsonaro, the former Army captain is deeply unpopular among international (and particularly Western) elites. He is generally seen as an environmental villain, Covid denialist, and a direct threat to Brazil’s democracy. 

International executives are often surprised to find out that voting behavior in Brazil ahead of his matchup with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is very different from that in the U.S. in 2020, where the urban-rural divide is crucial and where a large majority of business executives voted for Joe Biden despite the Democratic candidate’s promises to increase corporate taxes. 

In Brazil, on the other hand, income is a decisive factor in explaining voting behavior, and while Mr. Bolsonaro is ahead among the rich, Lula enjoys most support among the poor. Although some executives have been publicly critical of Mr. Bolsonaro’s authoritarian tendencies — and business associations such as Fiesp, a federation of São Paulo industries, have recently signed a manifesto in defense of democracy — the majority will still cast their vote for the president if he were to face Lula in the runoff, as polls currently suggest.

There are nuances, of course. 

Agribusiness leaders are particularly supportive of...