Bolsonaro’s desperation presents a major risk for Brazilian democratic safeguards

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is desperate. 

No president has ever stood for re-election facing such unfavorable odds. Recent polls place him 19 points behind Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. If the elections were today, the center-left former president would win in a first-round landslide.

While the sample size is small (only three presidents have run for re-election since redemocratization), no one has ever failed in such an attempt since the right to contest a second consecutive term was introduced in 1998. Losing in the first round would be an even more historic defeat.

The despair around the Bolsonaro campaign has resulted in policy and procedural chaos that mimics the playbook of authoritarian leaders from countries such as Hungary. For instance, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has used legislative confusion to maintain his extraordinary powers after declaring a pandemic-related state of emergency.

Brazilian senators on Thursday passed a constitutional amendment that should be read as a massive warning sign about the way confusion...