Will the economy provide Bolsonaro an electoral lifeline?

Considering the recent performance of Brazilian economic indicators, the question in the title above may seem ludicrous. 

Following an unexpectedly fast recovery from the pandemic downturn, Brazil’s economy all but stalled in the second half of last year. Job recovery has been slow, with the 12-percent unemployment rate still a point above already high pre-pandemic levels. High inflation is quickly eroding purchasing power, with average monthly real wages collapsing by 11.5 percent in the 12 months leading up to November 2021.

With hopes that Covid-19 will soon be downgraded to an epidemic, economic issues are expected to replace health at the top of Brazilian voters’ concerns — a trend many pollsters, pundits, and The Brazilian Report have already noticed. 

Unsurprisingly, poll leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — Brazil’s president between 2003 and 2010 — has been emphasizing the “golden years” of his two consecutive terms in power, when, he claims, the poor could afford plane tickets, university tuition, and prime cuts of beef.

However, we are still more than seven months removed from Election Day, and incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro could still make use of some economic tailwinds to recover his...