In a country traditionally obsessed with “the beautiful game,” Brazil’s economic analysts frequently compare the Economy Minister’s role in the government to that of a goalkeeper in a football team. Even the best goalie in the world isn’t expected to score goals, but they are there to prevent opponents from scoring and defending against potentially embarrassing own goals.
The net, in this analogy, is the government budget and Brazil’s fiscal health. It is up to the Economy Minister to make sure that the endless list of politicians’ spending demands complies with existing budget laws, tax revenue estimates, and the market’s notion of debt sustainability.
However, when ruminating on the recent performance of Paulo Guedes, the mind wanders not to a solid goalkeeper, but to a flailing center-back — namely Brazil’s David Luiz, in the 7-1 semifinal thrashing at the hands of Germany in the 2014 World Cup. On that fateful day, the highly-rated player abandoned his defensive duties and simply roamed across the pitch, with movement patterns akin to that of a headless chicken.
Interviewed live after the crushing defeat, he sobbed that he was only trying to “give some joy to [the Brazilian] people.”
In late May, off the back of surprisingly strong tax revenue figures — Brazil’s tax collection in Q1 2021 was 9.5 percent higher than the pre-pandemic Q1 2019 — Mr. Guedes told newspaper Folha de S. Paulo that it was time to strike. “We played defense for the first three years, controlling expenses. Now the election is coming? Let’s attack,” he declared.
“Attack,” in this sense, would...
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