How the coronavirus changes Brazilian politics. And how it does not

Over the past month, the onset of simultaneous public health and economic crises has caused upheaval and disorientation across much of the world. In Brazil, however, the situation has been further aggravated by the bizarre behavior of its president. Jair Bolsonaro first dismissed the coronavirus outbreak as a “media fantasy,” deploying his favorite tactic of dismissing inconvenient facts as “fake news.”

However, this approach was undermined by the rapid spread of the coronavirus across Europe and North America and by several members of his own entourage contracting the disease. Mr. Bolsonaro himself claims to have twice tested negative but has failed to present any medical evidence, fuelling suspicions that he too may have been infected on an official visit to the U.S. earlier in March.

When he could no longer deny its existence, Mr. Bolsonaro briefly seemed to change tack, finally acknowledging the dominant view of the scientific community and most of Brazil’s political class that serious measures needed to be taken to try and contain the disease. 

In recent weeks, however, he has swung wildly between these positions and several intermediate ones on an almost daily basis. When his most extreme supporters organized protests against Congress and the Supreme Court in mid-March, Mr. Bolsonaro initially called for them to be canceled due to restrictions on large gatherings. However, he subsequently changed his mind, sending encouragement and even going to meet and physically embrace protestors. 

A few days later, he appeared in a press conference alongside his cabinet — all wearing protective masks — apparently supporting the need for social distancing measures recommended by his Health Minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta. Nonetheless, he continued to describe the reactions of some to the pandemic as “hysteria.” In recent days, he has radicalized this position, announcing his opposition to social distancing restrictions imposed by state governors, arguing that the virus is a relatively minor problem and claiming they will do more harm than good by inflicting damage on the economy.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s flip-flopping has at times seemed completely random. In fact, though, it reveals a lot about...