The inauguration of Brazil’s new president, Jair Bolsonaro, has triggered fears that rates of deforestation in the Amazon will increase. There are indeed good reasons for concern about Bolsonaro’s administration but several factors, both domestic and transnational, could constrain its ability to wreak environmental havoc.
First, some bad news: Mr. Bolsonaro and his cabinet do seem to view environmental concerns as an obstacle to development. For instance, the new Environment Minister, Ricardo Salles, said that the debate over climate change was a “secondary issue” and he was recently convicted of fraudulently favoring mining companies when he was state secretary for the environment in São Paulo. Under Mr. Salles’ leadership, the ministry will probably suffer budget cuts, and it has already lost key departments.
Furthermore, Bolsonaro has said he wants to restrict the powers of forest protection agency Ibama, taking away its ability to fine individuals and companies that illegally deforest and pollute. And, while the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by roughly 75 percent overall between 2004 and 2017, it has gone back up again, even before Bolsonaro took office. Between August 2017 and July 2018, deforestation increased by an estimated 13.7 percent.
Mr. Bolsonaro also recently tweeted that he wants to free Brazilian agribusiness from its dependence on imported fertilizers (75 percent comes from abroad). However, mining the ingredients in Brazil could...
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