The Brazilian electoral scene in 2018 will be marked by uncertainty. First, because the candidate currently leading all polls, former Workers’ Party President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, might not even be on the ballot. Convicted of corruption and money laundering, he would become ineligible if a court of appeals confirms the conviction. That’s because back in 2010, Brazil approved a law to prevent convicted felons from running for office.
Another factor contributing to instability is the internal division of PSDB, the center-right party that has been the Workers’ Party’s primary antagonist in every election since 1994. PSDB ruled Brazil between 1995 and 2002, promoting profoundly market-friendly reforms, as well as institutional reforms considered important for the country’s fiscal health. Today, the party is part of the coalition led by President Michel Temer. But PSDB is divided on its future direction: should it jump ship, or stick with Temer?
One could argue that maintaining its alliance with the government makes...
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