Number of the week

Brazilian agro will remain hostage to global and domestic uncertainties in 2022

Exchange rate pressures, high input costs, and dependence on China are all set to make 2022 a tricky year, though record results are expected for some commodities, including soy

commodities soybeans agro
Photo: Rafapress/Shutterstock

Welcome to “Number of the Week,” where we choose a single figure that helps understand what is going on in Brazil. This week, we show that the Brazilian commodities sector will face uncertainties inside and outside the country.

88mn tons
Brazil’s expected soybean exports in 2022

This year, Brazilian agribusiness is being hit by rising inflation, expensive inputs, production bottlenecks, high global freight rates and exchange rates, and unfavorable weather conditions. Even so, prices are attractive for the large production chains in the sector. The trend should continue into next year, in large part because international demand remains strong as economies recover from the pandemic recession.

However, a new study argues that structural and conjuncuntral uncertainties cannot be ignored if the sector is to have a successful 2022. 

Main challenges. “Perspectives for Agribusiness 2022,” presented to journalists this week by the agribusiness bank Rabobank, points out that one of Brazil’s main challenges for the coming year is the federal government’s fiscal policy, especially in light of 2022 being an election year. Uncertainty should see the Brazilian Real perform poorly against the US Dollar which, while good for exports, accentuates existing...

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