In this week’s issue: A special look into tomorrow’s election.
Main takes from the election
- The final push. Historically in Brazil, candidates that benefit from a final “wave” of support tend to win. Last week, it seemed as if Fernando Haddad would have the final say and looked to be in with a chance of leading the first round, but Jair Bolsonaro struck back and could win it all tomorrow. The Workers’ Party camp has finally started a more aggressive WhatsApp-based campaign, trying to prevent a first-round win for Mr. Bolsonaro and create a new wave of support.
- A different silent vote. According to telephone polls (which, in theory, overrepresent higher-income, right-leaning voters) carried out by DataPoder360, the gap between Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad is closer than shown in other polls. Mr. Haddad would be around 25%, with Mr. Bolsonaro just over 30%. It signals the possibility of a hidden, silent vote for Mr. Haddad: voters who are against Mr. Bolsonaro, but won’t admit voting for Lula’s party. Traditionally, the silent vote benefits more right-wing radical candidates. But in a Brazil overtaken by anti-Lula sentiment, the opposite may have happened.