Good morning! We’re covering the left and its struggles to challenge Jair Bolsonaro. The crisis within the president’s party gets worse. And Brazil’s upcoming energy auction. (This newsletter is for platinum subscribers only. Become one now!)
Early polls signal problems for Brazilian left
A poll published this morning by pollster FSB Pesquisas shows an uphill battle for the Brazilian left in the quest to return to the political forefront. Between Lula’s arrest and Jair Bolsonaro’s landslide win, the Workers’ Party—and the left as a whole—have been unable to present itself as viable options to Bolsonarism.
Despite being in jail for one and a half years, former President Lula remains the undisputed central figure of the left. While it shows how strong Lula’s legacy may be among voters, it indicates a problem: relying exclusively on a man who is ineligible for office until 2026 might be problematic. In three tested scenarios, Fernando Haddad, the former mayor of São Paulo who ran for president in 2018 as Lula’s proxy, is way below the Workers’ Party traditional voting capital of 30-ish percent of votes.
Why it matters. While it is awfully early to foresee the results of a national race which takes place...