Good morning! Today, we try to break down how the Brazilian economy will perform in 2022. And what the Biden-Bolsonaro meeting will mean for the October election (and for the post-election period).
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What to expect from tomorrow’s GDP report?
Official statistics agency IBGE will publish Brazil’s Q1 2022 GDP report tomorrow. For financial institutions, the numbers will come in higher than expected. The average forecast is for quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.5 percent, as services sectors rebound with the reopening of the economy — notably hospitality and transportation.
Uneven performance. The Omicron variant spread wildly in Brazil at the beginning of the year, especially in January and February, which means growth was more concentrated in March. That is important because it should have a carry-over effect on Q2, per investment bank BTG Pactual.
Industry. The industrial sector continues to be disrupted by hiccups in global supply chains and has experienced a meager and uneven recovery from the worst moments of the pandemic.
Agro. Problems with the soybean harvest should offset good results...