Happy Friday the 13th! Today, local investors don’t believe Jair Bolsonaro will cross the proverbial Rubicon. And the lingering race-based inequality in Brazil’s labor market.
Markets not pricing a power grab
Political scientists have grown worried about the possibility of President Jair Bolsonaro not accepting the electoral results if he loses October’s vote (back in March 2021, The Brazilian Report talked about how Brasília power brokers share that feeling). Last Sunday, the ombudsman for Brazil’s biggest newspaper, Folha de S.Paulo, urged the press to warn voters that “the coup will happen.”
But, but, but … Despite Mr. Bolsonaro’s constant attacks against the electoral system, local investors don’t believe there is anything to worry about. “A coup is not a concern for financial markets. At all,” says the head of a polling institute hired by banks to measure voter moods and help them draw up scenarios for the election.
- “Everyone is sure that there will be noise, but their worst-case scenario doesn’t include a democratic rupture.”
- The source asked for anonymity due to its non-disclosure agreements with clients.
Meanwhile … Fiesp, the federation of industries of São Paulo, has been silent in recent years after being a vocal opponent of the...