Happy Friday! Today, a look into how the war in Ukraine affects the Brazilian economy. Also, how Brazilian diplomacy will navigate the crisis. And Bolsonaro’s move to integrate Brazil into global far-right movements.
⚠️ Important: Our newsletter service will be off on Monday and Tuesday due to the Carnival break, but we’ll be back on Ash Wednesday! Meanwhile, our website will continue posting new original content every day. Happy Carnival!
War in Ukraine should increase inflation, stunt growth in Brazil
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will have economic ripple effects in Brazil, and should accelerate inflation and curb growth. The conflict had an immediate impact on commodity markets that are crucial to Brazil and in which Russia plays a major role, such as oil and wheat.
Oil. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter, and its military action quickly pushed the Brent global benchmark above USD 105 for the first time since 2014. While the effect will not be immediate, that will make it more expensive for Brazilians to fill up their tanks.
- In 2021, fuel price hikes were responsible for a third of Brazil’s 10.06-percent yearly inflation.
- Petrobras, the state-controlled oil giant which holds a de facto monopoly...