Good morning! Today, Brazil’s population is forecast to undergo significant changes over this century. Fuel tax changes are approaching as the House Speaker continues his charge against rising prices at the pump. Months later, Bolsonaro’s Supreme Court pick is still not confirmed by the Senate. Brazil’s dangerous over-reliance on commodities.
Brazilian population set to shrink by century-end
Currently at around 214 million, the Brazilian population is set to peak in the 2050s at over 230 million — and then face a consistent drop. Per the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), by 2100, the population will shrink to somewhere between 178.9 million and 156.4 million — the latter in case of a “populational shock.”
- Such a shock would consist of a significant dip in fecundity rates — the rate of offspring a population is able to produce in a given time — to levels below those estimated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which is responsible for official population forecasts.
- No matter the scenario, however, a quick and severe aging process of the population is inevitable, say Ipea researchers.
Why it matters. People aged 65 and over account for 10 percent of Brazilians today. In the shock scenario,...