We’re covering today the increasing (and awfully early) pessimism over 2020 after bad industry results. 5G rules in Brazil. Bolsonaro’s far-right roadshow in Europe.
This newsletter is for premium subscribers only. Become one now!
Are analysts giving up on 2020 already?
Expectations that 2020 would finally be the year in which Brazil would wrestle itself out of its slump have been hit by a bucket of cold water after the country’s latest industrial output results. Underwhelming results were expected after weak months in November and December, but the actual figure was much worse than analysts had anticipated: a 1.1-percent drop in industrial production.
Why it matters. Poor industry results couldn’t have come at a worse moment. The global scenario is filled with uncertainty amid the coronavirus outbreak—which will slow down the Chinese economy. Now, difficulties for Brazil have intensified.
Forecasts. Banks have already started to revise their growth projections for Brazil. In a report sent to clients on Tuesday, UBS slashed growth projections from 2.5 to 2.1 percent. On Monday, the Central Bank’s Focus Report—a weekly survey with top-rated investment firms—showed the median growth projection from Brazil went from 2.31 to 2.3 percent.
What held Brazil’s industry back. The Brumadinho...