Back in 2015, when Brazil was already one year into an economic slowdown, a question started popping up among economists: what will be the shape of this recession? The inquiry was somewhat of a metaphor. What people were actually wondering was how long the downward trend would last, when recovery would start and how strong it would be.
Looking back, part of the answers are given: the recession officially lasted for 11 quarters, until the end of 2016. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank 3.5 percent in 2015 and 3.3 percent in 2016, according to recently revised figures by the national statistics agency, IBGE. The upward trend began in 2017 when the country posted a 1 percent growth.
Now, fresh data and clearer perspectives about what is to come allow for a more precise answer to the original question: what will Brazil’s economic recovery look like?