New poll confirms calcification of Brazilian politics

Lula and Jair Bolsonaro during a debate in 2022. Photo: Bruno Santos/Folhapress

According to Datafolha, one of Brazil’s most renowned pollsters, 90 percent of voters who picked either Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election do not regret their choice. Per the institute, the numbers are a token of the enduring and deepening divide of the electorate — a process known as the “calcification” of politics.

Among Lula voters, 40 percent have more trust in the president than during the election. That rate drops to 36 percent of voters who picked far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Roughly 30 percent of voters declare themselves as petistas, Workers’ Party supporters — 10 percent say they lean towards supporting the party. Meanwhile, 25 percent are self-declared Bolsonaristas, with 7 percent leaning towards the far-right president.

Voters are becoming more entrenched, and it is harder to move them away from their predispositions. There is less chance for a new or dramatic event — such as an attempt to overthrow democracy like the one Brazil experienced on January 8, 2023 — to change people’s minds.

Political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck argue in their book “The Bitter End” that the calcification of politics is much worse than mere polarization. It drives a wedge between social groups and “creates the incentive” for political groups to change the rules in order to win over their opponents.

Back in June, electoral courts barred Mr. Bolsonaro from seeking public office until 2030. Electoral justices ruled that Mr. Bolsonaro committed electoral crimes when he used the presidential office to sow distrust in the system by which Brazil elects its representatives.

The decision led to speculation about who would take up the conservative mantle, without anyone emerging as a front-runner so far.