Brazil should have a record-setting harvest in 2023

Photo: André Dib/Shutterstock

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) updated on Tuesday its estimates for Brazil’s next cereal and oilseed harvest. It believes production will top the mark of 318 million tons in 2023. That will represent a 21 percent increase from last year.

Crops occupy 77.8 million hectares of land in 2023 (larger than the size of Texas). That represents a 6.3 percent increase from 2022.

Soybean production is estimated to reach 151.2 million tons. For corn, estimates reached 131.7 million tons (28 million in the first harvest and 103.8 million tons in the second). Carlos Barradas, a survey manager at the IBGE, says favorable climate conditions largely explain the increase in estimates.

As we explained in July, economists at the Brazilian Institute of Economics at think tank Fundação Getulio Vargas project that soybeans alone will account for 20 percent of Brazil’s gross domestic product growth this year, while also accounting for its indirect chain.

In 2022, the value of agricultural production in Brazil reached a record BRL 830.1 billion (USD 170.42 billion), an increase of 11.8 percent from 2021.

As for wheat, despite a 3.2 percent reduction from previous estimates, the IBGE still believes output will break a new record at 10.5 million tons.

“We are certain that Brazil will break new records for corn, soybean, sorghum, and cotton seeds,” Mr. Barradas says. “Wheat is still in the field, with the harvest expected to end in November. Several factors may still occur that affect wheat production, as the crop is very sensitive to climate conditions.”

The main wheat-growing areas in Brazil are in the South region, where torrential rainfall has caused flooding and impacted producers — creating uncertainty not only around the amounts to be harvested but also the quality of the crop, as high humidity levels favor the appearance of pests.