Unemployment data shows labor market back to pre-pandemic normality

The quarterly analysis of Pnad data — the most significant household sample survey conducted regularly by the Brazilian statistics institute IBGE — shows that the country’s labor market has definitely returned to pre-pandemic normality, with the unemployment rate returning to seasonal patterns in the first half of 2023.

According to the research coordinator, Adriana Beringuy, this translates into an increase in the unemployment rate in the first quarter, mainly driven by the search for work by those dismissed at the beginning of the year, followed by a drop in the second quarter, with the demand for opportunities dwindling. 

As we have shown, the country ended June with an unemployment rate of 8 percent, driven by people employed in informal activities — 0.8 percentage points down from the first quarter, when the rate was 8.8 percent. In the same quarter of 2022, the unemployment rate was at 9.3 percent. 

There are currently just over 8.6 million unemployed Brazilian adults — this statistic only includes people who are part of the workforce and are effectively looking for an opportunity.

The quarterly data analysis also shows that of the 26 Brazilian states, only seven besides the Federal District had significant drops in the unemployment rate. In the other 19 states, the rate was stable. 

In the second quarter, the highest unemployment rates were registered in the states of Pernambuco (14.2 percent), Bahia (13.4 percent), and Amapá (12.4 percent). The lowest rates were found in Rondônia (2.4 percent), Mato Grosso (3 percent), and Santa Catarina (3.5 percent).

The North and Northeast regions are the ones that historically have not only the highest unemployment rates but also the highest informality levels — Pará (58.7 percent), Maranhão (57 percent), and Amazonas (56.8 percent). These are much higher levels of informality than the country’s average for the second quarter of 39.2 percent.

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