Researchers at the University of Campinas say that a strict lockdown will be inevitable in the state of São Paulo unless social isolation rates dramatically increase in the next couple of weeks. Between May 8 and 10, the state registered an average of 1,839 new daily cases, with 1,033 every day in the city of São Paulo alone. If the contagion rate observed over the past 30 days remains stable, São Paulo could have 53,500 cases every day by the end of June.
“These projections are probably underestimated, as isolation rates have dropped since early in April. Between May 5 and 9, it didn’t even reach 50 percent,” said mathematician Renato Pedrosa, speaking to newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. Mr. Pedrosa developed the mathematical model used in the study — available in a pre-print version, that is, before it is peer-reviewed.
As our Daily Briefing explained today, São Paulo has avoided a lockdown so far, but all measures to keep people at home have failed.