Brazil and Mexico registered the smallest drop in circulation of people between April 3 and 5 in Latin America, a sign that the population is not complying with social isolation measures to inhibit the spread of Covid-19. The finding is based on data from Google and startup InLoco, compiled by JPMorgan analysts.
In Mexico, the movement of people fell by 33 percent, while Brazil registered a 38 percent drop — way below the 69 percent in Peru or Argentina’s 57 percent. According to JPMorgan’s model, quoted by newspaper Valor, the peak of infections in Brazil is expected to happen at some point between the end of April and early May, with a total of 80,000 cases. As of April 16, Brazil already had 30,425 confirmed cases. In their view, outcomes in other countries show that it is necessary to maintain social isolation at least until the peak of the pandemic.
While international consensus supports social isolation measures, JPMorgan analysts highlighted political conflict as the reason for half-hearted isolation in Brazil and Mexico. As we showed in our April 2 Daily Briefing, Brazil and Mexico were also the only countries in our sample where presidents Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador experienced a drop in popularity during the pandemic.