Covid-19 spread in line with designed scenarios: cases to reach 6,600 in four days

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Last week, we reported the launch of the Covid-19 BR Observatory, which traces the spread of the novel coronavirus in real-time. Apart from presenting data on the number of cases, the website also offers projections on the expected pace of the epidemic’s progression in Brazil.

The Brazilian Virology Society praised the initiative, but asked for caution when analyzing the data. “We have seen drastic changes in the profile of this pandemic since the Italian crisis. It will be interesting to evaluate the precision of such forecasts,” said chairman Fernando Spilki.

Since its launch, the number of officially confirmed Covid-19 cases has fallen in line with the median projection presented by the observatory—with almost 2,000 infections by March 23. For the upcoming four days, the researchers predict a steady evolution of cases, nearing 8,500 cases on March 28 for the projected worst-case scenario.