2022 Race

New poll brings good news for Lula

lula supporters ipec military
Lula supporters in Taboão da Serra, in São Paulo. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/IL

With 20 days to go until Brazilians hit the polls, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appears to have extended his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. 

In a poll published on Monday night, Lula appears with 46 percent of voting intentions, going up by 2 points from a week ago. Mr. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, repeated his score of 31 percent. According to pollster Ipec, Lula would win in a first-round landslide if the elections were today.

Ipec has only been measuring electoral opinion since the official start of the campaign on August 16. Over that period, Mr. Bolsonaro has been parked in the mid-30s despite jacking up social spending, intervening in the economy to tame fuel prices, and ramping up his aggressive rhetoric in an attempt to galvanize his base. 

So far, this election has been one of few changes, with the only inflection point coming in April when former Justice Minister Sergio Moro, who tried to fight Mr. Bolsonaro for the conservative vote, withdrew while polling between 6 and 8 percent.

Not even the September 7 rallies, for which Mr. Bolsonaro mustered sizable crowds, appear to have been enough to give his re-election bid momentum.