Ipec, one of Brazil’s most-renowned pollsters, on Monday night published its latest reading of the presidential election. The top three candidates have all repeated their scores from a recent August 15 poll: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (44%), Jair Bolsonaro (32%), and Ciro Gomes (7%).
Centrist Simone Tebet comes next, polling at 3 percent and followed by libertarian candidate Felipe d’Avila at 1 percent.
The survey keeps Lula in a position to win the October race in a first-round landslide — as he polls higher than the sum of all other candidates. With the election just over a month away, the former two-term president continues to appear as the head-and-shoulders favorite to win back his old job.
Stability from the latest poll interrupts a growth streak for President Bolsonaro, who was polling in the low-20s back in January and consistently gained ground in recent months.
The next polls will show it Mr. Bolsonaro — who is rejected by almost half of the electorate (more than any other president vying for re-election in Brazilian history) — has hit his ceiling.
Monday’s results do not reflect voters’ impressions from the first presidential debate, which took place on Sunday. A focus group of undecided voters put together by pollster Datafolha deemed Mr. Bolsonaro the worst-performing candidate.
During the debate, Mr. Bolsonaro personally attacked a female journalist who asked him about vaccine disinformation and was disrespectful to the two female candidates on stage. The president already struggles among female voters, and this was unlikely to help.
He also attacked the left-leaning presidents of Venezuela, Nicaragua, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina.
The government of Chile publicly condemned Mr. Bolsonaro’s words and summoned the Brazilian ambassador to clarify the comments to Secretary General for Foreign Policy Alex Wetzig. Summoning an ambassador is a kind of high-level, public display of disapproval. Having Mr. Pacheco talk to an underling is a particular insult to the Brazilian government.