2022 Race

Bolsonaro is competitive among voters living in favelas

favela favelas election lula bolsonaro
Photo: Cavan Images/Shutterstock

An unprecedented electoral survey among people living in favelas in metro areas shows that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 38 percent of voting intentions in these peripheral areas. Still, President Jair Bolsonaro is not too far behind at 31 percent.

The survey, by non-profit G10 Favelas, was published on Tuesday and surveyed favela residents in 64 cities across 24 of Brazil’s 27 states. They represent 17 million people, or 8 percent of the Brazilian population.

The majority of respondents (45 percent) said they would not vote for Mr. Bolsonaro under any circumstances; 48 percent said Lula’s administrations were the best in recent years. The issues that favela residents prioritize are job creation, healthcare, and inflation.

The numbers have not been segregated per region.

President Bolsonaro has launched an offensive to win the hearts and minds of low-income voters. Starting today, payments of the government’s flagship cash-transfer program will get a 50 percent bump until the end of the year. The value, however, remains insufficient to buy a basic food basket in at least 13 state capitals.

Mr. Bolsonaro also hopes that the decline in inflation — which in July had the biggest monthly drop on record — will improve his re-election chances. But as we showed today, food prices — which impact poor families the most — continue to rise. Milk carton prices, for example, went up by 25 percent in 12 months.