2022 Race

New Ipespe poll indicates tighter presidential race

poll lula bolsonaro
Photo: Antonio Scorza / Shutterstock.com

One day after renowned pollster Datafolha released its most recent survey, depicting former President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva streets ahead of incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro for the October election, rival institute Ipespe indicated a much tighter race with its latest poll.

While Datafolha had Lula beating Mr. Bolsonaro 48-27 in the first round — which would hand him a landslide victory — Ipespe’s results are far more conservative, with the former president on 45 percent ahead of Mr. Bolsonaro’s 34 percent.

Ipespe has shown a trend of stability for Lula, while capturing a steady increase in support for Mr. Bolsonaro since the end of March.

The two polls, however, are not strictly comparable. Ipespe’s surveys are held on a weekly basis and conducted via the telephone. Furthermore, their most recent poll still included former São Paulo Governor João Doria among the candidates — and he withdrew from the race on Monday.

Datafolha, meanwhile, carries out its polls on the street, interviewing citizens. What’s more, it had not held or disclosed a presidential survey for two months when it released its most recent data on Thursday.