2022 Race

Presidential polling curves begin to flatten

lula poll ipespe
Former President Lula with supporters. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/PT

The Ipespe institute published its latest round of presidential polls, confirming the stability of recent months. The polling scores of the three best-performing candidates are identical to those from the last survey, held two weeks ago.

According to Antônio Lavareda, a political scientist and Ipespe founder, the electorate remains split between former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. 

When voters are asked who they will vote for without being presented with a list of candidates, 38 percent mention Lula and 28 percent pick Mr. Bolsonaro. All other candidates combine for just 8 percent. Spontaneous polls are considered reliable measurements of candidates’ consolidated support — the latest results show that anyone trying to break the Lula-Bolsonaro dichotomy will face the narrowest of paths.

Ipespe’s runoff simulations are also stable, with Lula keeping a 20-point lead.

However, another institute, Ideia Big Data, shows a much tighter race, with Lula leading by just 7 points (46-39). Per Ideia, Mr. Bolsonaro has gained almost 10 points over the past few months — while Lula dropped 5 points.

The polls are not automatically comparable, due to their differences in methodology.