New poll shows stability in Brazil’s presidential race

A new presidential survey by pollster Ipespe shows that little has changed in the election race over the past few weeks. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva continues to poll in the mid-40s (where he has been parked since September of last year), with incumbent Jair Bolsonaro trailing by double-digit margins. 

The rest of the pack has yet to clear the 10-percent mark.

Over the past two months, President Bolsonaro has improved his polling numbers as he consolidates himself as the ultimate anti-Lula candidate, which allows him to attract most voters right of center.

Lula, meanwhile, still enjoys a comfortable lead — although one that is short of a first-round majority. Even if second-round simulations show him 20 points ahead of Mr. Bolsonaro, many political observers believe that the race will get much tighter until the October 30 runoff.

The former two-term president will formally launch his presidential bid tomorrow, with conservative former São Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate.

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