Today’s edition of the Central Bank’s Focus Report — a weekly survey of top-rated investment firms and their economic forecasts for Brazil — shows that markets do not believe inflation is easing up in Brazil. Over the past four weeks, the median year-end inflation prediction jumped from 6.97 to 7.89 percent and has risen in each of the past 16 weeks.
In March, inflation reached a 19-year high at 11.3 percent. “As the conflict between Ukraine and Russia lingers, inflationary pressure from commodity products will continue and raise fuels and food prices,” said Suno Research in a Monday statement.
On Wednesday, the Central Bank will update the country’s benchmark interest rate. Economists largely agree we will see a 1-point bump to the Selic rate, bringing it up to 12.75 percent — however, they disagree on predictions about the bank’s next steps. Expectations for the year-end benchmark interest rate range from 10.75 to 14.25 percent, per a recent survey by finance newspaper Valor.