The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its expectations for global economic growth in 2022 from 4.4 to 3.6 percent amid a more prolonged scenario of war in Ukraine and the latest spread of the coronavirus in China. Nevertheless, the outlook for commodity-exporting countries, such as Brazil, saw an improvement.
Though the country is facing persistent inflation — which stands at 11.3 percent in the last 12 months — the rise in international commodity prices made the institution improve its estimations for the country’s GDP up from the 0.3 percent in its last forecast at the beginning of the year, to 0.8 percent.
Considering all of Latin America, the IMF report expects moderate growth of 2.5 percent during the 2022 and 2023 biennium. “Brazil responded to rising inflation by raising the basic interest rate over the past year, which will weigh on domestic demand. To a lesser extent, this is also the case in Mexico. Low forecasts for the U.S. and China also weigh on the outlook for trading partners in Latin America,” states the document.
A year ago, with no war in Eastern Europe and hope for the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, Brazil’s estimated growth was 2.6 percent for this year.