2022 Race

Fewer Brazilian voters in the “neither-nor” camp

voters bolsonaro lula
Photo: Alan Santos/PR

Parties of the so-called “democratic center” plan to present a unified candidacy on May 18 to counter the Jair Bolsonaro-Lula dichotomy. But if the electoral landscape is already unfavorable for the so-called “third way,” the odds of a win could be nonexistent a month from now. The proportion of “neither-nor” voters – that is, those saying they want neither Jair Bolsonaro nor Lula as president – has fallen from 25 to 19 percent over the past month, per a poll by Quaest, published today.

Data suggests that Mr. Bolsonaro might be hoovering up some of these voters, with the rate of those saying they’d rather see the president win a second term jumping from 26 to 31 percent.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bolsonaro is regaining ground he had lost among his 2018 voters. In October 2021, just 46 percent of people who voted for the president in the last election wanted to repeat their choice in October 2022. That rate is now at 63 percent.

In today’s edition of the Brazil Daily newsletter, Amanda Audi and I explain why Mr. Bolsonaro’s camp believes that the election is within his grasp.