Inflation predictor slows down in January, but remains above market forecasts

Food prices continue to drive inflation rates up
Food prices continue to drive inflation rates up. Photo: Dasayev Diogo/Shutterstock

The mid-month inflation index IPCA-15 — known as a reliable predictor of official inflation — started 2022 at 0.58 percent, slowing down from December (0.78 percent) but still above market expectations. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expected a more modest 0.44-percent rise for the 30-day period. 

This week’s figures keep the 12-month inflation according to the IPCA-15 in the double digits, at 10.2 percent.

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed by the government, prices of food and beverages had the greatest impact on the index, with a 0.97-percent bump and a 0.2 percentage point effect on January’s IPCA-15 result. Transport, meanwhile, saw deflation, dropping 0.41 percent compared to December. This was due to a drop in the price of gasoline (-1.78 percent) and airfares (-18.21 percent).