Brazil’s GDP predictor up in November after four consecutive drops

Brazilian economic activity index rose 0.69 percent in November from October, the first positive result after four months of decline, according to the Central Bank’s economic activity index (IBC-Br) — considered a reliable predictor of official GDP figures. The result beat market expectations. A Refinitiv survey projected 0.65-percent growth for November. Between October and September, the seasonally adjusted index dropped 0.28 percent.

In addition to being the first positive result since June, this month’s GDP preview was also the largest monthly increase since the 1.67-percent bump seen in February 2021. Compared with November 2020, the IBC-Br rose 0.43 percent, and 4.30 percent in the 12-month period.

The advance of Covid-19 vaccination favored the Brazilian economy, especially the services sector, but the scenario has been affected by lofty inflation rates. This led the Central Bank to constrict its monetary policy even further, lifting the Selic benchmark interest rate up to its current 9.25 percent, which, in turn, restricts economic growth.

This coming and going in economic performance is clearly shown by the IBC-Br, which has five months with positive results and another six with monthly declines.

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