IMF improves global perspectives, but not for Brazil

The International Monetary Fund has lifted its global growth forecast from 5.5 percent in January to 6 percent now. For Brazil, however, improvements to GDP predictions were much slimmer: the IMF now expects the local economy to grow 3.7 percent, a minimal increase from previous forecasts of 3.6 percent. 

Though global recovery is tied to the improvement of the coronavirus crisis, the IMF’s projections — if confirmed — would fully offset the 3.3-percent slide in output measured for 2020. However, GDP growth of 3.7 percent in Brazil would not be enough to wipe away last year’s 4.1-percent plunge.

The latest predictions are a textbook case of what the IMF calls a “divergent recovery.” While the unprecedented policy response in developed countries will probably lead to a smaller impact than the 2008 crisis, “emerging market economies and low-income developing countries have been hit harder and are expected to suffer more significant medium-term losses.” 

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