Will Sheinbaum undo Mexico’s energy liberalization?

That Claudia Sheinbaum from the incumbent Morena party clinched the recent Mexican presidential elections came as no surprise.

But the fact that Ms. Sheinbaum won with nearly 60 percent of the national vote in a landslide election, bringing the coalition to the brink of a supermajority in both chambers of Congress, did catch observers off guard.

This has sparked concerns that such an overwhelming mandate could pave the way for the president-elect to further Andrés Manuel “AMLO” López Obrador’s legacy and implement major constitutional changes.

Among those fearing changes are those invested in Mexico’s energy sector — an industry that the highly-popular AMLO persistently aimed to overhaul, pushing for greater participation of state-owned companies. His proposals would overturn a 2013 pro-market reform which opened oil and electricity up to the private sector, in a move that drew AMLO’s criticism from day one. 

During his six years in office, AMLO’s attempts at energy reform were thwarted time and again by both the Mexican Congress and the country’s judicial system.

The former struck down a 2021 constitutional reform proposal that prioritized state-controlled generators in energy markets, while a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year also deemed a similar bill unconstitutional, pointing to favoritism toward public companies such as hydrocarbon giant Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE).

As AMLO’s protégé, President-elect Sheinbaum now stands poised to fulfill her mentor’s ambitions, empowered by a congressional coalition whose power has rarely been seen in modern Mexican politics.

The alliance...