Mexico’s drop in murder rates boosts AMLO’s momentum

Headlines were hopeful in Mexico this week, as a decades-long wave of homicides that has plagued the country showed some signs of easing through 2022, according to figures from the Inegi statistics bureau. 

Bureau reports of the lowest number of homicides in a five-year timespan bring a welcome respite that President Andrés Manuel “AMLO” López Obrador will seek to sell as a political win ahead of elections next year. 

“The data is very encouraging because it marks a sustained trend,” the left-wing president celebrated during a press conference last week. AMLO predicted murder rates would continue to drop until the end of his tenure next year. “Violence has never overflowed since we took office, and now there is already a decrease,” he said.

The agency reported 32,223 Mexican murders from January through December 2022. While staggeringly high, this marks a 9.7 percent drop from the previous year, when 35,700 homicides were recorded. It is also the lowest record murder rate since 2017 — when violent crime spiked significantly during the final stretch of Enrique Peña Nieto’s presidency. 

The 2022 murder rate fell to 25 deaths for every 100,000 inhabitants, from 28 in 2021.  Men account for 90 percent of the victims of all fatal crimes, with figures showing a murder rate of 5.8 per 100,000 from women, compared to 44.4 per 100,000 among males.

Preliminary government statistics point to sustained momentum during...