Paraguay elections threaten Colorado hegemony. And Taiwan

Nearly 4.8 million eligible Paraguayans are set to choose the country’s political path for the next five years next Sunday, April 30. Voters will elect a new president and vice president, as well as 45 senators, 80 representatives, 17 governors, and other minor administrative positions.

But the stakes in the vote of the soybean-exporting nation of 7.4 million seem much higher this time around, posing one of the biggest threats the country’s historic Colorado Party has ever faced.

Founded during the reconstruction period following the disastrous Triple Alliance  War, the Colorados have dominated Paraguayan politics since the 1940s, controlling the nation with a tight fist during Alfredo Stroessner’s 1954-1989 dictatorship and winning several elections since. 

That dominance may now be in jeopardy, as incumbent President Mario Abdo nears record-low approval ratings and economist Santiago Peña — who beat Mr. Abdo’s faction in December’s Colorado Party primary — also struggles in the polls.

Mr. Peña was considered the favorite not so long ago, but his lead has eroded throughout the year. After leading in the first few months after the primary, April polls suggest that Mr. Peña is now in a virtual tie with his Liberal Party rival Efraín Alegre. 

Mr. Alegre leads a broad coalition known as the Concertación Nacional, which the Liberals share with other parties such as the left-wing Frente Guasú — which briefly took power from the Colorados in 2008 but couldn’t finish its term after a controversial impeachment. The opposition coalition even has a slight edge in some polls, leading Mr. Peña by 38 to 36 percent — within the pollsters’ margin of error. 

The opposition has many factors working in its favor. Incumbents have struggled across the board in Latin America of late, but few...