Beyond ideological supporters and the “anti-politics” vote, a significant portion of those who elected Jair Bolsonaro president in 2018 did so with an eye on the economy. During the campaign, the former Army captain declared he knew “nothing about economics” and the appointed ultra-liberal Paulo Guedes as his future tsar for all things finance. With supporters of free trade and liberal economics firmly on board, Mr. Guedes set his stall out early, saying that South American trade bloc Mercosur (which also includes Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) wouldn’t be a priority during his tenure and that “doing business with ideology” — a veiled dig at China — had its days numbered.
This came as quite the break with tradition, as China and Argentina are among Brazil’s top three trading partners. According to think tank Fundação Getulio Vargas, almost 30 percent of Brazilian exports in 2019 went to China. But while Brazil broke monthly records of exports to China this year, even during the pandemic, the country’s relationship with Argentina has soured dramatically. Now, China has...
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