Amazon GDP could see boom by 2050 if deforestation ends

Dead and buried is the idea that preserving natural ecosystems is bad for business, or is incompatible with economic prospects. In Brazil’s Amazon region, a recent study suggests that by conserving the pristine forests still standing, the area’s GDP could hit BRL 1.3 trillion (USD 260 billion) by the middle of the century.

The “New Economy of the Amazon” study, carried out by WRI Brasil, The New Climate Economy, and 76 researchers and organizations across Brazil, indicates that the so-called Legal Amazon (comprising all nine Brazilian states in the Amazon basin) could see an increase of at least 312,000 jobs and an annual GDP bump of BRL 40 billion by 2050, providing deforestation comes to an end.

“The idea for this study arose from a very simple question: what would the economy of the Amazon look like if there were no deforestation?” says Rafael Feltran Barbieri, senior economist at WRI Brazil.

This forward-looking approach embraces the principles of zero deforestation, low-carbon agriculture, and a solar-powered energy matrix, offering potential for more robust and inclusive economic growth until 2050.

The current economic model portrays the Amazon primarily as a repository of land, supplying low-value-added inputs to the Brazilian and international economies, exporting primary goods while importing higher-value-added goods and services. 

Fortunately, deforestation alerts in the Brazilian Amazon have dropped to a four-year low, with an annual decline of 7.4 percent in the 12 months through July, according to satellite data released by the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe). But the country still has a long way to go.

The report outlines four scenarios, factoring in constraints on emissions and deforestation. The study suggests that no combination of technological and energy packages can fully offset emissions resulting from deforestation driven by...