GDP growth projections stable at around -5 percent

. Oct 13, 2020
gdp brazil

The Brazilian Central Bank has released its latest Focus Report — a weekly survey of top-rated investment firms concerning their outlook for the Brazilian economy. The median GDP growth rate for the year now sits at -5.03 percent, the first time in five weeks analysts have lowered their expectations for the country’s economy.

However, this week’s results confirm a continuing consensus that the GDP skid this year will hover around 5 percent, a much lower fall than initially expected. Back in July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted the Brazilian economy would shrink by at least 7 percent — a contraction that could reach 9 percent in the case of a second wave of Covid-19 infections.

Brazil’s premature reopening — barely any restriction measures are still observed — has helped boost the economy, though record-high unemployment rates remain a source of concern. The government hopes to figure out a way to roll out a new welfare plan for 2021, when the coronavirus emergency salary ends, without sparking a confidence crisis due to ballooning debt.

Gustavo Ribeiro

An award-winning journalist, Gustavo has extensive experience covering Brazilian politics and international affairs. He has been featured across Brazilian and French media outlets and founded The Brazilian Report in 2017. He holds a master’s degree in Political Science and Latin American studies from Panthéon-Sorbonne University in Paris.

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