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Poll projects Bolsonaro as favorite in all 2022 election scenarios

. Jul 24, 2020
veja poll bolsonaro President Jair Bolsonaro during remote cabinet meeting. Photo: Clauber Cleber Caetano/PR

An opinion poll carried out by research institute Paraná Pesquisas and commissioned by Veja magazine suggests that President Jair Bolsonaro is on course for successful re-election in 2022, regardless of his opponent. This, despite his government’s shambolic handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has resulted in over 84,000 deaths and counting.

The poll tested a number of first-round election scenarios, with a selection of different candidates. In each hypothetical race, Mr. Bolsonaro gained the most support, with percentages varying between 27.5 and 30.7 percent.

The survey also included potential electoral run-offs, pitting President Bolsonaro directly against opponents such as former President Lula, 2018 candidates Fernando Haddad and Ciro Gomes, ex-Justice Minister Sergio Moro, São Paulo Governor João Doria, and television personality Luciano Huck. Against all six, Mr. Bolsonaro would be victorious, according to the results.

Going by these outcomes, the president’s fiercest competitors in 2022 would be Lula and Mr. Moro, against whom Mr. Bolsonaro managed the smallest leads.

Recent polls have shown that the president’s electoral stock has risen thanks to the BRL 600 (USD 110) coronavirus emergency salary program. According to pollster Datafolha, Jair Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have increased in the Northeast region — which is most dependent on the emergency aid — and Center-West, which has the best economic numbers among Brazilian regions. On the other hand, Mr. Bolsonaro lost support in the North and Southeast, where the highest number of coronavirus cases have been seen.


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Euan Marshall

Originally from Scotland, Euan Marshall is a journalist who ditched his kilt and bagpipes for a caipirinha and a football in 2011, when he traded Glasgow for São Paulo. Specializing in Brazilian soccer, politics and the connection between the two, he authored a comprehensive history of Brazilian soccer entitled “A to Zico: An Alphabet of Brazilian Football.”

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