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Projection: Over 960 daily deaths in Brazil by late-May

. May 16, 2020
Projection: Over 960 daily deaths in Brazil by late-May Photo: Blue Planet Studio/Shutterstock

As of yesterday, the Brazilian Health Ministry had confirmed 218,223 Covid-19 cases and 14,817 deaths in the country. Scientists, however, predict that Brazil is yet to reach its Covid-19 peak. Per Greek project Covid-Analysis, the country — which registered 824 new deaths yesterday — could top 960 daily victims by May 30. The peak should arrive on June 1, when 962 deaths are projected. The study also predicts the country to have reached 350,000 confirmed cases and nearly 29,000 deaths by the same date. 

Greek project Covid-Analysis deaths
Greek project Covid-Analysis: Projections for Brazil

With over 56,000 total casualties projected by June 28, scientists predict the number of victims will nearly double less than a month after Brazil reaches the peak. By then, the total number of cases could be around 740,000.

A similar study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington released this week estimates that 88,305 people should die of Covid-19 in Brazil by August 4 — though the total number of casualties in the country could range between 30,300 and 193,700.

It should be noted these are only projections, not predictions, and we are still learning about Covid-19, but they provide a useful barometer for understanding the spread of the disease. 

 
Augusta Saraiva

Augusta is a Brazilian journalism student at Northwestern University

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